Saucers of Mud

August 3, 2023

“Must We Know What We Say?”: Belated Postscript and Reply to DeRose, Part I

From a long time ago: Here’s part of a footnote from Keith DeRose’s 2009 book The Case for Contextualism Vol. 1 (p. 98, the continuation of footnote 20 from p. 97) about my paper “Must We Know What We Say?” (JSTOR link, open final draft link):

[Text: While I am discussing Weiner’s paper, I will briefly take the opportunity here to register my reactions to his proposed counter-examples to the knowledge account of assertion at (2005: 230-1). These are proposed as cases in which the assertions are proper, though the speakers don’t know the propositions they are asserting to be true. But it seems to me very far from clear that the speakers don’t know the propositions they are asserting in these examples. Indeed, it wouldn’t seem to me at all unusual for the speakers to have instead outright said, ‘I know that…’ in these examples. And where the speakers do refrain from claiming knowledge, making do with mere flat-out assertion in these examples, it would be perfectly appropriate for their conversational partner to ask, ‘How do you know that?’ If the speaker then admits that she doesn’t know, it seems that she is then barred from making the flat-out assertion. (On contextual analysis, it seems likely that the epistemic standards have been raised in such cases.) At any rate, where one sticks to examples where it actually is fairly clear that the speaker doesn’t know the proposition she’s asserting, I think one will find it hard to come up with cases where the assertion is also clearly appropriate. At least, haven’t encountered any counter-examples that I’ve found convincing.]

It’s obviously well past time for me to respond to this, but:

It’s perfectly congenial to what I say in that paper that the speakers know the propositions they assert in my examples. I even say so in the paper. This may be surprising to people who know about the paper, because if it’s known for anything, it’s known for arguing against the knowledge account of assertion and for the truth account. Nevertheless, at the end, in a passage I don’t think anyone ever discusses, I say:

We want our beliefs to be stable, but we also want them to justify assertion. Why should the former outweigh the latter when we ascribe knowledge?
We might think of rescuing the knowledge account by ruling that proper asserters do have knowledge; not by invoking an independent theory of knowledge…, but by identifying the epistemic position required for knowledge with that required for assertability. Then we would have an assertability account of knowledge rather than a knowledge account of assertion.

Which means that I’m willing to allow that the speakers in my examples have knowledge—if we define “knowledge” as “whatever it takes for a speaker to assert properly in a given context.” I give the examples of Jack Aubrey watching the French fleet and saying “The French will attack at nightfall!” or Sherlock Holmes glancing at a crime scene and (uncharacteristically) saying “This is the work of Moriarty!” Both these, I stipulated, are more or less hunches that wouldn’t resist counterevidence.* But I don’t mind if you call them knowledge. You can say that Aubrey knows that the French will attack at nightfall because of his long naval experience, if you like.
*Which is why it’s uncharacteristic of Holmes, who would never make an assertion like that without being able to explain his exact reasoning. In a footnote to his dissertation, Aidan McGlynn correctly rakes me over the coals for getting Moriarty wrong as well. But never mind that.

The thing here is that I meant my paper as an attack on knowledge-first epistemology. One way to knock the concept of knowledge off its pedestal is to argue that it doesn’t play important roles like being the norm of assertion. Another way is to drain the concept of its significance. That is, to say that when we say “Jackie knows that it’s raining,” we’re not getting at a concept that we can build our epistemology on. Which might seem strange, if it’s true that Jackie can properly assert that it’s raining iff she knows it’s raining. How could that not be a fundamental concept? It could not be a fundamental concept if the fact that Jackie knows that it’s raining depends on the fact that she can properly assert that it’s raining, not vice versa.

At the time, my thinking was more friendly to contextualism than it became later. On p. 240 of “Must We Know What We Say?” I even suggest that DeRose’s account (as presented in “Assertion, Knowledge, and Context”) can yield that the Aubrey and Holmes assertions are knowledge while lottery assertions aren’t. But I also argued that the cost is that this means that “knowledge” isn’t robust to counterevidence; they ought to retract their assertions in the face of the slightest counterevidence. That stability is specifically something that Williamson invoked as making knowledge important. He argued that someone who knows that p will be more likely to stick with their actions based on p than someone with a mere justified true belief that p, so knowledge explains actions better than justified true belief does. So my idea was partly: If saving the knowledge account of assertion means giving up the stability of knowledge, it means giving up one of the big motivators of knowledge-first epistemology.

Contextualism seemed even more incompatible with knowledge-first epistemology, though. On its face, if the meaning of “know” varies indexically with context, then there is no such thing as knowledge. The word “me” means whoever the speaker of the constant is, but there’s no Me, only different people who may be speakers. You can’t have a philosophical theory of Me-first anything. If “know” worked like “me,” so that it meant “know by whatever standard of knowledge is in effect in the context,” then the non-linguistic concepts “know” picked out would be a bunch of knowledge-by-standards, not a single concept of knowledge. And I figured that these would vary largely by the strength of justification required, so this would push us to a justification-first conception of epistemology.

(There have definitely been attempts to reconcile contextualism and knowledge-first epistemology, like Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa’s Contextualizing Knowledge (2017). But that’s what I was thinking at the time.)

So at the time I was fine with contextualism. I would be happy to endorse everything DeRose said in the footnote, including that asking “How do you know?” could raise the standards so that the speaker would have to qualify their assertion. (Though I also thought that, in contexts where the speaker was playing a hunch, “How do you know?” wouldn’t be an appropriate thing to say. When John McLaughlin says “The next man or woman to walk on the moon will be Chinese” there’s no point in saying “How do you know?”)

Later I decided even contextualism didn’t go far enough. Not only is knowledge not a thing in itself, our use of “know” is basically a way to put a gold star on a belief, saying that it does whatever we want belief to do in a given situation. Sometimes we just want the belief to be there, and believing is enough for knowledge. With assertibility, whatever makes something assertable usually makes it knowledge. I’ll talk about that more in another post.

November 5, 2022

Back-Yard Rain Probability Gauge from Science Made Stupid by Tom Weller

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 6:10 pm

I wanted to post about the Rain Probability Gauge from Science Made Stupid by Tom Weller (out of print, hosted with Weller’s permission at https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B241HCXaGuT8TzZhYXNJS25EWEk/view?resourcekey=0-G5WyeyFZRFpq0CFMEkHiLQ), but the text is too long for me to alt-text on Twitter, so here it is in what I hope is accessible form!

Testing Rain for Probability

You’ve probably heard the weatherman predict a “30% chance” or a “70% probability” of rain. You can check the chance of rain having fallen for yourself with a back-yard rain probability gauge.

Let’s say it rained during the night. What were the chances of that rain occurring?

  1. Check the gauge—which is marked in inches just like a regular rain gauge—for the level of rainwater, and mark it down. This represents the level of actual rainfall (which will always be the same as the level of probable rainfall.)

2. Next, check the level of nonprobable rainfall (which you can also think of as probable nonrainfall). Since nonprobable rain is lighter than probable rain, the nonrain will float on top of the rainwater.

Probabilites, of course, are invisible. To render them measurable, the rain probability gauge contains a probability float to mark the level of nonprobable rain. A probability float can be made of any material less probably than rain, and hence lighter. Except in very dry parts of the world, this presents no problem; an entry stub from the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes will do nicely. Alternatively, a few drops of statisticians’ ink can be added to the column to make it visible.

3. To the two levels, apply the formula actual rain divided by total probable & nonprobable rain = % chance

In the illustration, 3 inches of rain divided by 10 inches of norain gives .30, telling you that the three inches of rain that fell did so as a result of a 30% chance of rain.

[Illustration: a tube with markings. Water filling up the bottom three markings are labelled “Actual Rain.” Seven more empty markings are labelled “Non-Probable Rain.” A stub of paper at the top is labelled “Probability Float.”]

If it has not rained, and the gauge is dry, proceed as follows:

  1. Mark down the level of the probability float.
  2. From a watering can or garden hose, slowly add water to the column until the probability float starts to rise.
    This approach is based on the fact that the bottom of the gauge contains a certain level of probable rain, just as before, but without any actual water to make it visible. Since real rain must contain equal volumes of water and the probability of water, the probability in the bottom of the column will absorb just its own volume of the water you add, and no more.
  3. Measure the level of water and the new level of the float.
  4. Subtract from the water level a volume of water equal to the rise in the probability float, as this represents water in excess of the probability level.
  5. Divide this figure by the total capacity of the gauge, thus deriving the odds from which your dry spell resulted.

October 29, 2020

Myron Orfield, “Deterrence, Perjury, and the Heater Problem”

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 1:05 pm

I was trying to read Myron Orfield’s important University of Colorado Law Review article, “Deterrence, Perjury, and the Heater Problem,” and Westlaw’s incompetently designed website made me do about half an hour of browser wrangling before it allowed me to view it even though my university library pays for a subscription, so I thought I should perform a public service and upload it. It can be found at mattweiner.net/orfield. (The bibligraphic information is available at that link.)

Academic publishers exist to prevent people from viewing academic work and should be destroyed.

November 21, 2019

They’re Not Wrong, But He’s Not Wrong Either, It’s Weird

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 9:34 am

August 19, 2019

Rachel McKinney on Standards

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 11:47 pm

Excellent Twitter thread from Rachel McKinney on how too much of the discussion of trans rights in philosophy fails “to meet normal content-neutral standards of evidence-based inquiry.”

August 18, 2019

Open Thread for Epistemological Discussion

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 11:22 am

In the event that anyone wants to talk about anything epistemological here, go for it!

August 8, 2019

A Couple More Links on the Transphobia Debate

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 10:45 am

This by Samantha Hancox-Li, on formal free speech vs. having your testimony heard, is absolutely excellent.

Related, two threads from Johnathan Flowers on citation practices and what we are expected to listen to. Transphobic philosophers are publishing a lot of awful stuff–I don’t just mean morally awful, but just terrible arguments, like making a key empirical claim and repeatedly refusing to provide evidence for it, and far too many people are taking this seriously when it can’t pass muster.

As he says, the philosophers (often junior career philosophers) who push back on the transphobic philosophers have been forced to engage with their arguments in ways that the transphobic philosophers do not engage with the arguments of their opponents. Kathleen Stock has boasted about her refusal to engage with feminist philosophy. (If you think “I’ve read the literature in this area, I think this is bad, so I won’t cite it” counts as engagement, good luck getting published in any other area of philosophy. But philosophers don’t take expertise in feminist philosophy seriously.)

It’s exhausting to deal with this asymmetric burden of expectations on who’s supposed to do the work. It’s exhausting to me, and I’m not doing most of the work (partly because I refuse to join Twitter and so I publish at this blog, which basically nobody reads). I’ve stopped reading new Medium posts from the most prominent transphobic philosophers becasue I’ve read enough to be pretty confident that the next 10,000 word post rehashing the same stuff wasn’t going to be better; it’s folly to believe that they’re going to give some support for their assertion the sixth time. My support to the people who are out their pushing back against this, and shame on philosophers who are letting transphobic philosophers get away with shoddy work and ignoring the people who’ve put in the work.

 

(Matt Weiner, University of Vermont)

July 31, 2019

A Clarification, And Also, Come On

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 7:00 am

Occasionally I’ve seen people refer to a paper by Kathleen Stock as “I—Kathleen Stock: Fictive Utterance and Imagining.” In case this is confusing, the title of the paper is not analogous to “I, Robot,” but a Roman numeral. It’s from a proceeding of the Aristotelian Society, which tends to present twinned papers in the format “I–Author1: Title” and “II–Author2: Title” (I think maybe often the same title).

Also Rachel McKinney is right about this, this, and this. The POTFROTIs’ work in their endless Medium posts has been incredibly bad, and they aim to have a public effect! Nobody seems to be able and willing to point to the places where they provide actual evidence for their key claims about trans women being dangerous, as opposed to anecdotes. When this is done to immigrants we recognize it for what it is, I hope. It’s no better when it’s done to trans people.

July 29, 2019

My Jokes Come To Life

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 11:53 am

 

 

 

(three tweets snipped)

Last year I said, in response to someone who seemed to be using the concepts of “privilege” and “epistemic injustice” without understanding them:

Being slightly familiar with the literature whose terms you’re using and using those terms properly isn’t a form of privilege, even if people who don’t do it tend to get marginalized and dismissed.

I didn’t expect this to be controversial! Or, perhaps less tendentiously, what does Schwenkler mean by “privilege” here?

July 28, 2019

A Bit More on the Current Transphobia Wars

Filed under: Uncategorized — matt w @ 10:57 pm

(Matt Weiner, University of Vermont)

John Schwenkler, in the course of a sort of semi-apology for calling Jonathan Ichikawa an “utter shit,” has linked with apparent approval to a post in which Brian Leiter attacks Christa Peterson at length.* Peterson is quite rightly upset about this; being targeted by a senior philosopher with an outsized platform is very threatening to her as a graduate student. As Peterson points out in the linked tweet, Schwenkler recognizes this as a concern when the target is another tenured professor (or, hypothetically, himself).

“But,” someone might say, “if Peterson behaved badly she can’t expect not to be criticized for it.” That’s not something I’m sure I’d accept, but the good news is it’s moot anyway–Peterson hasn’t behaved badly. I’ve read her on Twitter for a while, and what she’s been doing is calling out injustice in the philosophy profession, and also pointing out flaws in the arguments of… let’s call them “philosophers opposed to full recognition of trans identity,” or POTFROTIs for short. Also sometimes she swears. Well, sometimes people swear. It’s Twitter.

The below is going to get into some very messy stuff concerning the recent arguments, which are taking place in a lot of Twitter threads going all over the place. My account is going to be very rambling and I apologize for that. The tl;dr is that Peterson has done some careful and valuable work in documenting what looks like very sloppy work by some POTFROTIs. She deserves careful engagement with this, not bile. She is a god damn hero for it. (And it’s understandable if her patience runs short sometimes, given the way so many participants in the discussion ignore her points.)

In particular, it’s worth looking at the interaction that led Schwenkler to call Ishikawa an utter shit–Schwenkler has apologized for the four-letter word, but not for the insult. What Ishikawa had said was that Kathleen Stock, one of the most prominent POTFROTIs right now, is not a serious scholar of gender. Not that she’s not a serious scholar in other fields, but that she hasn’t at the moment established the kind of familiarity with the philosophical literature on gender that you’d expect from someone who was getting invited to address the Aristotelian Society on gender, being invited to review a book about transnational feminism in the premier venue for philosophical book reviews, etc.

Again, Schwenkler got very mad that Ishikawa said Stock wasn’t a serious scholar of gender. But this is a claim that’s worth getting mad about only if Stock is a serious scholar of gender. Schwenkler as far as I can tell offers no defense of this claim except that he expects that Stock has done the reading. Now, I’m not a scholar of gender myself, so I have to look at evidence. Rachel McKinney, an actual scholar of gender, thinks Stock is obviously not a serious scholar of gender. (Schwenkler responded by saying that there’s no specialized knowledge or skill required to be a serious scholar of feminist philosophy, which as McKinney and Nicole Wyatt point out is false, and a pretty astonishing insult to feminist philosophy.) Holly Lawford-Smith, one of the other prominent POTFROTIs right now, says “Most of us only got into this stuff a year ago” (admittedly, Stock may be one of the ones who isn’t part of the “most”).

What’s most convincing to me is this thread (and similar ones from before), where Peterson documents many ways in which the current group of POTFROTIs appear not to have done the reading. Look, for instance, at the discussion of “sex class”–I’m not a scholar of gender, but I can follow links from Shulamith Firestone’s Wikipedia article. And I haven’t seen anything from the POTFROTIs or their defenders that explains why they made these apparent mistakes. The closest response seems to be this from Lawford-Smith claiming that Peterson only includes one recent example, which McKinney and “Bertolt Rekt” point out isn’t very convincing. We do get a bald statement that Peterson is less credible than Stock, without any attempt to address the evidence.

I may have missed something–these threads are messy, and it’d be easy to miss something even spending an unhealthy amount of time on Twitter. But I really haven’t seen a convincing refutation of Peterson’s point that the POTFROTIs don’t seem well grounded in the relevant literature.

Well, as I said, that was big long and messy. But in short: Be very careful when dragging grad students in public. (I’ve tried to stay away from calling out grad students and non-tenure track philosophers; if I’ve slipped up, please let me know.) And really don’t attack graduate students who are correct, making valuable arguments, and doing work that really should be taken on by senior faculty.

 

 

*I think this is also the post in which Leiter attacks me, or maybe it’s another similar one? Obviously I’m not too upset about being attacked by Leiter on his blog; if I minded the prospect of Leiter attacking me, I wouldn’t have publicly expressed such a thoroughly negative opinion of him. But, interest declared, if you need it.

Also AFAIK Leiter hasn’t gone after me the way he did Peterson, just included me as one of many names on a list of philosophers who supposedly inspired the 12 Leading Scholars letter. Which honestly I doubt is true as a matter of the actual causal history of the letter, but it’s an honor just to be nominated.–If I didn’t have the privilege of sitting in a tenured position I might feel differently.

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